Personal forecast · logistic model

The Singularity Curve

capability(t) = 100% / (1 + e^{−k·(t − t₀)})

The Singularity is the curve’s midpoint (t₀): the moment AI capability is rising fastest, roughly when AI can do most of the world’s intellectual work.

AI capability (% of ceiling) Rate of change (% of peak) 1Key event

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Singularity (midpoint)

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Steepness k

Chart starts

First year on the x-axis

Chart ends

Last year on the x-axis

Marker label

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When the curve crosses each level

Key events

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